Is William Nylander's Holdout Smart?

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The Sniper’s Perspective

So everyone is aware of the William Nylander hold out. He is currently asking for 8 million per season and the Leafs are offering up to 7 per season for 8 years. If he had his way, he would receive 64 million over those 8 years, if the leafs had their way it would be 56.

So while Nylander is holding out for that contract that would pay him an extra 8 million over 8 years, he is currently not receiving any money at all this season. So instead of being paid 7 million this season, he is receiving 0.

Does it make sense to hold out for that extra 1 million per season? So what if he holds out for the entire year, now he’s a year older, didn’t play in the NHL for a full year, do you think he is worth the 8 million then? If anything that would lower his value right? A full year not competing at the top level of hockey. Or what about this scenario, he is currently working out and practicing with a European team, what happens if he gets injured? A season ending injury, that will cause him to go into next summers negotiation with not having played hockey at all for an entire season, and not competing at the top level of hockey.

For a 22 year old to be worried and holding out this long over 1 million extra per season, when the contract offered by the Leafs is 56 over 8 years, seems a little silly, especially with the risk factors and when you consider this contract will bring him to age 30, and he still has another 7-10 years after which he could most likely still make another 7-15 million per season after. It is not as if this will be the final contract of his life and the Leafs are trying to pay him peanuts.

But high risk, high reward right?

What Is The Ceiling For Tavares?

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Last night the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-3, which saw Marner record a goal and an assist, Reilly record a goal and assist, Matthews record 2 goals, but it saw Tavares record an incredible 4 assists! The sad thing is, as impressive as it is, it’s not even uncommon this season, as he is the 5th player to do it, and we are only just over a week into the season!

But with Tavares already having 10 points in 5 games this season, what is a realistic expectation for him points wise? Never has Tavares played on a team with so much talent as the Leafs do this season, and he is taking full advantage of it. Their Powerplay is lethal, operating at 50% so far through 5 games and he is enjoying every minute of it, recording already 3 points on the powerplay.

In a career 674 games Tavares has 631 points, so he operates at just under a point per game, but he has never played on a line with someone as skilled as Marner before, and has never played on a powerplay with Matthews, Marner, Kadri and Reilly. So while he operates at a career point per game of .93, we know he is a point per game player without all this talent around him. In the 14-15 season he set career highs in both goals and points, which was 38 goals 86 points, and he will leave that number is his dust this season. At his current pace he would finish the season at 164 points, while that will not be the case, it would not be unrealistic to think he maintains a point per game pace for the remainder of the season, which would finish him with 87 points, which alone would beat his career high. But from this moment on, a realistic number would be he operates at a point per game average of 1.15, this would give Tavares another 88 points over the 77 games, ending his season with 98 points.

My personal prediction is John Tavares ends the season with 41 goals and 57 assists.

Not bad getting a 98 point player in Free Agency.