Realistic Expectation For Ovechkin

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The Snipers Perspective

With Ovechkin’s two goals last night, that gives him 4 goals in 3 games this season, and it also moves him into 17th place all time in goals with 611. Just another 283 to catch Gretzky!

Ovechkin is on the wrong side of 30, turning 33 this past September, and while most players end up on the decline in this time, the style Ovechkin plays he should still remain a dominant goal scorer for another few years.

So this begs the question, what is a realistic expectation for Ovechkin this year, and years to come? Well, last season, everyone thought it would be the end of the Ovie goal scoring dominance, and how did he respond? Back-to-back hat-tricks to start the season, and ending the season with 49 goals. He had a taste of the Stanley Cup last season and he wants that taste back. I would say an expectation for Ovechkin this year is 42-45 goals. After 3 games he is already 10% of the way there! Ovie and Kuznetsov just keep getting more and more chemistry together so I think 42-45 is very reasonable this season.

So while no one wants to admit it, decline is inevitable, and Ovechkin has already stated he does not plan on playing in the NHL until he is 40; “Sometimes you need to finish where you started” - So he has full intentions on returning to the KHL at some point.

Ovechkin is signed for 3 more seasons, so let’s humour that after those 3 seasons, he signs a 1 year extension.

18/19 season: 42 goals

19/20 season: 40 goals

20/21 season: 35 goals

21/22 season: 32 goals

If Ovechkin gets this amount of goals in his next 4 seasons, which he is highly capable of, he would finish his career with 756 goals. Which would put him in 4th place, just passing Brett Hull. Personally I do not believe he would be happy with this, and one thing that works in Ovechkins favour is that he is a shooter. Kuznetsov and Backstrom do all the skating and setting up and Ovechkin just wires it. And their is no reason he cant keep doing that for many more years. I believe he would play for 2 more seasons. If in those 2 additional seasons he puts up 30 goals then 25, he would finish with 811 goals, which would rank him 2nd all time.

Retiring at the age of 38, as the number 2 goal scorer in NHL history.